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How Ukraine Won the First Phase of the War - Modern Warfare DOCUMENTARY
Kings and Generals
·
May 11, 2026
Open on YouTube
Transcript
0:11
We like to be precise with our
content and not cash in on the
0:15
ongoing conflicts, so instead of spamming
your timelines with hot takes constantly,
0:19
we decided to take our time and summarize
the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine
0:24
with monthly videos. This conflict will
enter history as pivotal both historically,
0:30
and in terms of military science, so we will
have more to say over the next while. For now,
0:35
allow us to present to you our video on the
first phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
0:42
And with a look at the war’s beginning, we can
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2:01
In October 2021, the Russian army started
a build-up on the Russia-Ukraine and
2:06
Belarus-Ukraine borders. The Kremlin explained it
with planned military exercises, brushing aside
2:13
all the concerns and declaring that they had a
right to move their forces wherever they deemed
2:18
necessary within their borders. But soon, the
United States started asserting that the massing
2:24
of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border was a
build-up for an impending invasion of Ukraine.
2:30
The Russian government vehemently denied this,
while some NATO states and Ukraine considered
2:35
the US reports exaggerated. Nevertheless, by
December, Russia started making demands: for
2:42
NATO to guarantee that Ukraine would never join
the organization; that Alliance would withdraw
2:48
its forces from countries that joined the alliance
after 1997; that NATO would stop its expansion;
2:56
that NATO would seek agreement with Russia for any
activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Caucasus,
3:02
and Central Asia. Naturally, the United States and
its allies rejected these proposals. Despite the
3:09
Russian assurances and attempts of Western leaders
like French President Emmanuel Macron to find
3:14
common ground, the tensions continued growing.
On 17 February, forces of the unrecognized
3:21
Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and
Ukraine accused each other of shelling.
3:27
Unrecognized governments of Donetsk and Luhansk
ordered the evacuation of their populations.
3:32
On 21 February 2022, the Russian president
Vladimir Putin made a threatening speech,
3:39
questioning Ukrainian statehood and
calling it a Bolshevik-created entity.
3:44
On the same day, Russia became the first country
to recognize the so-called Donetsk People’s
3:50
Republic and Luhansk People’s republic, justifying
this step by claiming that a genocide had been
3:56
committed by the Ukrainian government and neo-nazi
groups against Russian-speaking people in Donbas.
4:04
In the early morning of 24 February, Putin
announced the start of the special military
4:09
operation to denazify and demilitarize
Ukraine. A military conflict in Ukraine,
4:16
which started in 2014, turned into a
full-scale war with the invasion of Russia.
4:22
According to different estimates, Russia deployed
150k to 200k troops out of total active personnel
4:30
of approximately 900k, along with up to 40
thousand separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk,
4:37
later joined by a few thousand troops from Syria
and separatist republics of Abkhazia and Ossetia.
4:44
It is safe to assume that most of the best Russian
troops were deployed to Ukraine. At the same time,
4:50
the rest of the active personnel are mostly
conscripts stationed throughout vast Russia.
4:56
The Russian army divides into Battalion Tactical
Groups (BTG), which are autonomous military units
5:03
consisting of infantry, armored and unarmored
military vehicles, artillery, field hospitals,
5:08
and so on. According to the latest pre-invasion
figures provided by the official US sources,
5:15
Russia amassed approximately 120 BTGs on the
border with Ukraine. BTGs usually have 600-1000
5:24
infantrymen, are supposed to have 10 tanks,
and between 40 and 70 other armored vehicles.
5:30
This allows us to estimate that 1200 tanks
and 4800 to 8400 other armored vehicles
5:38
are being used in the Russian expeditionary force
if all BTGs are equipped by the book, which is
5:44
rarely the case, especially in an army known for
vast corruption and poor administration. According
5:51
to the IISS Military Balance, Russia possesses
1391 military aircraft and 544 attack helicopters,
6:01
but it is impossible to know how many of them
Russia is exactly using in the war in Ukraine.
6:07
The same source shows that Ukraine has
active personnel of approximately 200k
6:12
troops, more than 3k armored vehicles,
132 military aircraft, and 55 helicopters.
6:21
Since Ukraine has declared general mobilization
and armed volunteer Territorial Defense,
6:27
we could assume the actual number of people
resisting the invasion is way higher.
6:32
Moreover, thousands of volunteers joined Ukraine’s
international brigade. While talking about the
6:38
comparison of forces, it is necessary to note that
the Ukrainian army has come a long way since 2014.
6:45
The army has been significantly modernized.
Its military arsenal is much better, as the
6:51
United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, and others
have provided Ukraine with anti-tank weapons like
6:57
NLAW and Javelin, anti-aircraft missile systems
such as Stinger, along with TB2 Bayraktar drones.
7:05
The Russian offensive started with a massive
shelling and airstrike campaign throughout Ukraine
7:11
with more than 100 missile strikes to destroy
the Ukrainian military infrastructure, bases,
7:16
anti-aircraft missile systems, arms depots.
The later events demonstrated that Russia
7:22
failed to achieve its goal, as the Ukrainian
military infrastructure, albeit heavily damaged,
7:28
managed to mostly stay intact. This was followed
by a ground offensive in four general directions.
7:35
The Northern Offensive by the Russian troops
deployed in Belarus towards the capital Kyiv.
7:40
The Eastern Offensive from Belgorod towards
Kharkiv. The Donbas (Southeastern) Offensive
7:46
from the territories controlled by
pro-Russian separatists and Voronezh
7:50
towards the Ukrainian-controlled territories of
the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Southern
7:56
Offensive from Crimea towards Kherson, Mykolaiv,
and ultimately Odesa. It looks like the Russian
8:02
strategy was to rapidly advance towards major
urban centers, taking large cities like Kyiv,
8:08
Kharkiv, Odesa as soon as possible to break
the morale and resolve of the Ukrainians
8:14
and force the government to capitulate, along
with ensuring the land connection between the
8:18
separatist-ruled part of Donbas and Crimea, and
securing the whole Black Sea shore of Ukraine.
8:25
These 4 offensive axes were supposed to merge
after securing advances along the frontline
8:31
to make pincer and envelopment movement more
possible. The exact political endgame of the
8:37
Russian offensive still puzzles analysts with
claims ranging from installing a pro-Russian
8:43
puppet government to dividing Eastern
Ukraine into several pro-Russian states.
8:48
The Ukrainian defense strategy was
to orderly withdraw to urban centers
8:53
while fighting advancing Russian forces,
bogging them down in urban warfare,
8:58
ambushing and attacking their supply lines.
It would be illogical for the Ukrainian army
9:03
to defend all the terrain along the whole of
the massive front, given the Russian advantage
9:08
in firepower. The analyst Michael Kofman
calls this tactic trading space for time.
9:15
On the first day of the invasion, Russia made the
most significant advance on the Southern Front,
9:20
where the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) advanced
for about 60 kilometers pushing the Ukrainian 57th
9:28
Motorized Brigade back and taking the North
Crimean Canal and reaching the outskirts of
9:33
Kherson. On the Northern Front, the 35th CAA
took Chernobyl and the Chernobyl power plant,
9:40
while the 36th CAAs pushed towards the capital
Kyiv bypassing Chernihiv. The Ukrainian 1st Tank
9:47
Brigade managed to halt the Russian advance,
as it failed to capture the city of Chernihiv.
9:54
The 41st CAA’s advance towards Kyiv from Sumy was
also halted in the outskirts of Sumy by the 56th
10:00
motorized brigade. The Russian airborne attack
on the Hostomel Airport near Kyiv by the elite
10:07
31st Guards Air Assault Brigade of the Russian
VDV (elite Airborne Army) also failed after the
10:13
Ukrainian counter-attack. The rapid capture of
Kharkiv did not happen either as the 1st Guards
10:20
Tank Army could not break the resistance
of the Ukrainian 92th Mechanized Brigade.
10:26
The advance of the Luhansk Militia and the
Russian 20th CAA towards Severodonetsk met
10:31
the resistance of the Ukrainian 53rd Brigade with
heavy fighting around the town of Schastya. The
10:37
elements of the 8th CAA and the Donetsk Militia
pushed the 54th Mechanized Brigade towards the
10:43
Northwest from the Ukrainian-“DNR” line of contact
and the 56 Motorized Brigade towards the East
10:50
along the Black Sea shore with heavy fighting
around Mariupol, but failed to reach its
10:55
overall goals of taking over the rest of Donetsk
oblast and breaking the Ukrainian resistance.
11:02
On 25 February heavy fighting on all fronts
continued. The Russian troops forced their
11:08
way into Obolon mere 9 kilometers away
from the Ukrainian Parliament building.
11:13
The 95th Air Assault Brigade and the 72nd
Mechanized Brigade were there to protect Kyiv.
11:20
At this point, the United States even offered
Ukrainian President, Zelenskyy to leave the
11:25
capital, to which he reportedly replied: “The
fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride”.
11:32
The threat to the capital was real, as during his
speech to the nation he called the Ukrainians to
11:38
brace for an offensive and urged them
to prepare for a hard battle for Kyiv.
11:43
Zelenskyy’s refusal to leave and insistence to
fight against the odds turned him into a hero
11:49
and the symbol of the Ukrainian resistance,
further mobilizing Ukrainian society and
11:54
galvanizing the international community
to adopt crippling sanctions on Russia,
11:59
such as disconnecting several major Russian
banks from SWIFT. But the situation continued
12:05
to be difficult for the Ukrainians. The American
intelligence predicted that the fall of Kyiv
12:10
would happen within 96 hours. Even though the
Russians failed to capture Sumy, they continued
12:16
their march towards Kyiv from there, advancing to
Romny. On the Southern Front, Russians developed
12:22
their success by capturing Novo Kakhovka and
moving closer to securing Kherson and Melitopol.
12:28
Taking Melitopol was essential to continue
the march along the Black Sea shore to merge
12:33
with Russian and separatist units trying to
take Mariupol, along with advancing towards
12:38
Zhaporizhie, which could have encircled the
Ukrainian units fighting on the Donbas front.
12:43
In Kharkiv and Donbas, the situation remained
more or less stable, and there were even reports
12:49
of the Ukrainian counter-offensives pushing
back the Russian units to the border in Milove.
12:54
February 25 was also the day when the defenders
of the Zmiinyi Island, south of Odesa,
12:59
famously responded to the Russian demand of
surrender: “Fuck off, Russian military ship!”.
13:06
On February 26, the Russian army mostly used
special forces and airborne troops to fight
13:11
the Ukrainian defense in Kyiv. With the 36th
CAA giving up on the rapid capture of Chernihiv
13:18
and bypassing it to move towards the capital,
it looked that other Russian units around Kyiv
13:23
waited for its arrival to strike Kyiv with massive
force. Similarly unable to take the city of
13:30
Kharkiv with a direct assault, the 1st Guards Tank
Army divided into two groups to bypass the city
13:36
to possibly envelop the Ukrainian
units in the city or move towards Kyiv.
13:42
The situation in the Southeastern Donbas
front remained relatively stable as well.
13:47
The Russian troops and separatist militia captured
the port of Berdiansk and the Berdiansk Airport.
13:53
DPR separatists also claimed to capture Pavlopol
and Pischevik, while LNR separatists also claimed
14:00
to seize Lopeskyne and Markivka. Russia
continued its advance on the Southern front.
14:06
The 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division
of the 58th CAA of the Russian army
14:11
continued fighting in Kherson, while also
sending units toward the city of Mykolaiv.
14:17
Other elements of the 58th CAA were
engaged in fighting to seize Melitopol,
14:22
along with advancing towards Enerhodar and
the Zaporizhian power plant in the north.
14:27
Oleksiy Arestovych, the advisor to the Ukrainian
president, admitted on February 27 that Ukraine
14:33
lost control over the whole of Berdiansk.
Prevailing in Kherson and Melitopol, capturing
14:40
Henichesk and Kherson Airport meant that the
Russian offensive on the Southern front developed
14:44
its success, increasing the threat on Mykolaiv
and Odesa in the West and Mariupol in the East.
14:51
First reports of the Russian army merging its
offensives in the Southern and Southeastern
14:55
Front around Mariupol also emerged on that day.
But the continuing assault on Zaporizhzhya,
15:02
namely on Enerhodar, Vasylivka and Tokmak meant
that the 58th CAA, the most successful unit of the
15:08
Russian war effort so far, had to fight in three
different directions, dividing its resources.
15:15
On other fronts the situation remained more or
less stable as Russia made small gains such as
15:21
the capture of Kupyansk, the encirclement of
Konotop, but the 41st CAA’s attack on Pryluky
15:27
and the 1st Guards Tank Army’s attacks on Kharkiv
and Okhtyrka were repelled. By now, it had become
15:34
clear that the strategy of causing collapse of the
Ukrainian defense by rapid mass offensive on major
15:40
Ukrainian cities had failed, as the Ukrainian
army not only remained functional in the cities,
15:46
but also managed to harass Russian supply lines
and inflict major losses on the Russian manpower
15:51
and military vehicles. In response to the
Western sanctions and failure to rapidly
15:57
defeat the Ukrainian resistance, Putin ordered
Russia's nuclear forces on high alert. The valiant
16:03
defense of Ukraine caught the West by surprise,
as contrary to almost unanimous expectation of the
16:09
fall of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army remained
a force capable of defending the country.
16:15
As a result, for the first time in history,
the EU announced direct military aid to a
16:20
foreign country - Ukraine, while Germany made
a major turn in its foreign policy by sending
16:26
weapons to Ukraine and stating its intention
to dramatically increase its military spending.
16:32
But Russia still possessed major resources
sufficient to defeat Ukraine. On February 28
16:39
satellite images of a 64-kilometers long massive
column of tanks, military vehicles, and artillery
16:45
moving from Belarus towards the western part of
Kyiv were shared on social media. Along with that,
16:52
in the Kyiv front, elements of the 41st and 36th
CAAs moved to bypass Sumy and Chernihiv to merge
16:59
with an aim to make a push toward East Kyiv.
Presumably, the overall goal was to attack Kyiv
17:05
from a number of directions, but the maintenance
of a formidable force by Ukraine in Chernihiv and
17:11
Sumy oblasts caused a major threat to the
extended supply lines of the Russian army.
17:17
Elements of the Ukrainian 1st Tank Army conducted
defensive actions against the 41st and 36th CAAs
17:24
stalling the Russian advance in Nizhyn. Along
with maintaining a solid defense around Kyiv,
17:30
the Ukrainian forces also engaged in
pointed counter-attacks, such as in Makaryv
17:35
and Borodyanka. In Donbas heavy battles around
Volnovakha, Starobilsk and Mariupol continued.
17:42
In Kharkiv, Ukraine set a defensive line between
Chuhuiv and Balakliia, preventing Russians from
17:49
encircling Kharkiv and moving towards Poltava
and Dnipro. Numerous reports of heavy shelling
17:55
of civilian areas in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol
and other cities of Ukraine continued. Also, the
18:02
first death of a Russian general in the war was
reported, as the deputy commander of the 41st CAA
18:08
Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky was allegedly
killed. On a diplomatic front, as expected the
18:15
first round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations
in Belarus did not bring any positive results.
18:22
The first day of March brought several
setbacks to the Ukrainian defense.
18:27
Reports of capture of Kherson and Melitopol
meant that now the 42nd Motor Rifle Division
18:33
was free to move towards Mykolaiv, while other
units of the 58th CAA engaged in Melitopol
18:40
could join the attack on Mariupol from the West,
making the encirclement of the city a real threat.
18:46
Reports of the Belarusian army joining
the Russian offensive were not confirmed.
18:51
On March 2, the Western intelligence sources
reported that Russia was switching its military
18:56
tactic from head-on offensive on cities to
attritional war, wearing down the Ukrainian
19:02
army by continued assault on its defensive
lines and shelling of Ukrainian cities to break
19:08
the morale of the population as the overall
pace of their offensive remained well below
19:13
expected. Ukrainians report reclaiming of Horlivka
by the forces of the 96th Air Assault Brigade and
19:21
Makariv by defenders of the Kyiv perimeter. During
the next few days both sides claimed taking Irpin,
19:28
Bucha and Hostomel, towns in the vicinity of Kyiv,
capture of which was crucial for the success of
19:34
the Russian campaign in Kyiv. It indicates that
heavy fighting was going on around this area,
19:40
but these reports also stipulated that the
Russian attacks were mostly carried out by
19:45
1 or 2 BTGs at the same time, which
was interpreted by military experts
19:51
as inability of the Russian army to carry out
coordinated attacks by a large number of units.
19:57
Another point of the Russian offensive in the
Kyiv front was Brovary, but the attempts to
20:02
push back the Ukrainian army by the 41st and 36th
CAAs were repelled. Within the next several days,
20:10
these unsuccessful attacks would continue.
On other fronts Russia took Balakliia,
20:16
repelled the Ukrainian counter-attack on
Horlivka and engaged in heavy battle to
20:21
take the Mykolaiv airport on March 3. But possibly
the biggest gain of the Russian army on this day
20:28
was the capture of Svatova, which is situated
between Kharkiv and Luhansk, by the 6th CAA
20:34
and by the Luhansk militia. This allowed the
Russian Eastern and Southeastern axis to link.
20:41
The only positive result of the second round
of negotiations was the agreement to open
20:46
corridors for civilians stuck in encircled
cities like Sumy, Chernihiv and Mariupol.
20:53
On 4-6 March Russia made important
gains on several fronts. In the South,
20:59
the 58th CAA took Enerhodar and the power plant
in the vicinity, along with Tokmak and Vasylivka.
21:06
There were also reports of successful
Russian advance on the Mykolaiv airport
21:10
and heavy fighting in the Mykolaiv oblast, which
was defended by the 57th motorized brigade.
21:16
Along with that, the 6th CAA and Luhansk
separatist forces started attacking Izium
21:22
and Severodonetsk. The fall of these cities could
have been disastrous for Ukraine, as it could have
21:28
possibly allowed the Russian units to encircle
the 56th Motorized Brigade and other Ukrainian
21:33
units fighting in Donbas. Heavy fighting was
reported along the Chuhuiv-Balakliia line, which
21:40
the Ukrainian defense managed to withstand. They
were not as successful at the Nizhyn-Pryluky line,
21:46
as Russians were able to penetrate it pushing
within 20kms of central Kyiv from the Northeast.
21:53
The Russians also managed to encircle Okhtyrka.
On March 7, Ukraine managed to reclaim the
21:59
Mykolaiv airport and Chuhuiv. The massive tank
column in the west of Kyiv still threatened
22:05
the city, but no significant fighting or
movement in that direction was reported.
22:11
This was also the day when the first international
volunteers joined the defense of Kyiv. In the
22:17
South, Russia repeated its tactic of bypassing
the cities, which it failed to take with a head-on
22:22
assault, as the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault
Division bypassed Mykolaiv towards Voznesensk.
22:29
The aim was to force the Southern Bug river
and advance on strategically crucial Odesa.
22:35
On March 8 Russia took steps to
solidify its encirclement of Mariupol,
22:40
by capturing the highway between the city and
Volnovakha, while also moving elements of the
22:46
41st CAA to the Sumy oblast to strengthen its
extended and constantly attacked supply lines.
22:53
On March 9-12, the Ukrainian 1st Tank division
managed to repel the Russian offensive by the 90th
22:59
tank division and 55th motorized rifle brigade on
Chernihiv, along with establishing a connection
23:05
with the pocket of resistance in Nizhyn. Heavy
battles continued in Izium and Severodonetsk.
23:12
Russian offensives on Brovary by the 6th
Guards Tank Regiment, on Hadyach by the 4th
23:17
Guards Tank Division, and on Krivyi Rih by 7th
Guards Mountain Air Assault Division were also
23:22
successfully repelled. But the Ukrainian situation
around Mariupol continued to deteriorate,
23:30
as the Russian forces and Donetsk separatists
moved into portions of eastern part of the city,
23:35
along with taking Volnovakha. The
infamous tank column in Northwest of Kyiv
23:40
by now had dispersed and redeployed elsewhere.
The most important event of 13-16 March was the
23:48
ballistic strike at the Yavoriv training center
near Lviv, as the Russian Defense Ministry claimed
23:54
that 180 “mercenaries” were killed in this strike
on the base, where training of foreign volunteers
24:01
was conducted. By these dates it had become quite
clear that Russia had stalled in all directions
24:07
and was unable to conduct any major
offensive operations anywhere, but Donbas.
24:13
While the Russians made some gains in Izium and
pushed around Rubizhne, the Ukrainian offensive
24:18
towards Kherson pushed the 20th Guards Motor Rifle
Division and reached the town of Posad-Pokrovske.
24:25
The Ukrainians also broke
the encirclement of Okhtyrka.
24:29
On 19-20 March reports of Russian troops digging
trenches and deploying minefields around Kyiv
24:36
indicate that Russians had given up on offensive
operations to take the capital and prepared for
24:42
a defensive war. On March 21-24 Ukraine gained
ground around Kyiv by counter-attacking towards
24:50
Bucha, Vorzel, Moshchun, Makaryv, and Irpin,
while Russia made progress in Izium and Mariupol.
24:56
On 25-29 March, Ukraine capitalized on low
morale and poor supply of the Russian army
25:04
and made considerable progress on several fronts.
The Ukrainian army solidified its successes on the
25:10
Kyiv front by pushing back the 37th Separate
Motor Rifle Brigade and the 31st Guards Air
25:17
Assault Brigade from Irpin and the 90th Tank
Division further away from Brovary and reclaimed
25:23
Lukyanivka. In the Sumy-Kharkiv axis, the 93rd
Brigade took back Trostyanets, Boromlia, and Mala
25:30
Rohan, and end the encirclement of the city of
Sumy, forcing the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
25:37
to withdraw to Russia for presumed redeployment
in Donbas, where Russia still had a capability
25:42
to launch successful offensive operations and
made some gains around Izium, Severodonetsk,
25:48
along with capturing more of Mariupol putting
the Ukrainian defense of the city in an even more
25:53
desperate situation. On the Southern front, the
Russian offensive had completely stalled as well.
26:02
On 30 March, reports of withdrawal of several
Russian units from the Kyiv axis started to
26:08
emerge, whether due to heavy losses or as a part
of a campaign to deescalate military operations
26:14
around Kyiv. Along with that, redeployment of
Russian units, such as the elements of the 20th
26:20
CAA and the 1st Guards Tank Army to Belgorod
for replenishment to presumably later send
26:26
them to the Donbas front continued.
During the next couple of days,
26:31
we witnessed several instances of fighting on the
Northern Front with Ukrainian success and then a
26:36
complete withdrawal of Russian units from Kyiv and
Chernihiv oblasts. The 35th, 36th, and 41st CAA
26:45
made an orderly withdrawal towards Belarus, while
reports of redeployment of the 90th tank division
26:51
and 2nd guards motor rifle division to the Donbas
front emerged. On April 2, the Ukrainian Defense
26:57
Ministry stated that Ukraine was now controlling
all of the Kyiv Oblast. On April 4, the governor
27:05
of Zhytomyr Oblast also stated that the region
was now completely under Ukrainian control.
27:11
By April 5, there were no Russian troops left in
the Chernihiv Oblast either. Ukraine prevailed in
27:17
the Northern Front and the Battle of Kyiv against
all odds. But Russian loss came at a very high
27:24
price for the Ukrainian military, infrastructure,
and particularly, the civilian population. As the
27:30
Ukrainian army reclaimed Bucha, it witnessed
horrific scenes of hundreds of civilians lying
27:35
dead on its streets. Satellite images taken on
the days, when the Russian army still controlled
27:41
this town, prove beyond reasonable doubt that
this massacre was indeed committed by Russia.
27:47
Ukraine also staged counterattacks in
Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. On 31 March,
27:54
they liberated Malynivka, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai
and other towns in the Zaporizhia oblast, along
28:00
with several towns and settlements in the Kherson
oblast, including Novovoronstovka on 1-2 April.
28:07
But around the same dates, Russia continued
very slow, but steady progress in Donbas,
28:13
as they claimed to capture Zolota Nyva in the
Donetsk oblast and Zhytlivka in the Luhansk
28:18
oblast. On April 1, Ukraine admitted
that Russia was able to capture Izium
28:24
after days of heavy fighting. But arguably,
the most important event of this day
28:29
was the Ukrainian strike on a fuel storage
depot in the Russian city of Belgorod,
28:34
which was the first incident of spillover of
the war in Ukraine to the Russian territory.
28:40
On April 4, reports of the advance of the Russian
forces from the Kharkiv axis towards Slovyansk
28:46
started emerging. According to various military
experts, capture of Slovyansk created options
28:52
to link up with the Russian units fighting in
Rubizhne, or advancing towards Horlivka, both of
28:57
which carried a potential risk of encirclement
for the Ukrainian units on the Donbas front.
29:03
By 5 April, elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army,
including the elements of the 2nd GMRD, 4th GTD,
29:11
47th GTD, the 106th GAD, the 144th MRD and the
3rd MRD were redeployed to Izium and we can expect
29:21
most of the Russian offensive operations
to be conducted along the Donets River,
29:25
which the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade and
the 81st Air Assault Brigade will try to defend.
29:32
The presidential aide Orestovych noted in his
interview that the Ukrainian army faces 8 to 1
29:39
numerical disadvantage on this axis. On 6 April it
was confirmed that the Russian army completed its
29:46
withdrawal from the Sumy oblast too. These forces
were to be redeployed in Donbas too. Lastly,
29:54
the situation of the Ukrainian units in Mariupol
was getting increasingly more desperate. According
30:00
to British Intelligence, by April 7 Russia
already controlled 76% of the city. But it is also
30:07
reported that the Russian units participating in
the siege of Mariupol are suffering heavy losses
30:13
amid fierce resistance by the Azov battalion
and units of the regular Ukrainian army.
30:19
In the run-up and on the first few days of the
war, almost everyone expected a quick Russian
30:25
victory and the collapse of the Ukrainian
army. It was only a question of when. But
30:31
the Ukrainian army has defied the odds by
standing tall and more recently prevailing
30:36
in the Battle of Kyiv and reclaiming some
of the lost territories in other regions.
30:42
Despite the overwhelming advantage in firepower,
bad planning by the Russian command manifested in
30:48
an inability to conduct major offensive operations
in the coordination of a large number of units
30:54
and different branches of the military; poor
logistical preparation was demonstrated by images
31:00
of incapacitated military vehicles due to lack of
fuel and insufficient food supplies proved by the
31:06
Russian looting of civilian stores; low morale,
the clear indicator of which is scores of Russian
31:13
servicemen, particularly conscripts surrendering
to Ukrainians, since they don’t really understand
31:18
what they are fighting for and are just
completely unprepared to the brutality of war;
31:24
inability to ensure air domination despite the
huge numerical advantage in military aircraft
31:30
has made the Russian war effort
in Ukraine to go horribly wrong.
31:34
Around Kharkiv and South of Ukraine, the
Russians have been pushed back as well.
31:39
The only axis, where Russians and
pro-Russian separatists can hope to gain any
31:44
considerable success is the Southeastern front.
The Russian General Staff has stated in late March
31:51
that its main focus is on the so-called
“liberation” of Ukrainian-controlled territories
31:56
of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, since it remains
the only front, where Russians can realistically
32:01
hope for success. Russia continues to
employ the tactic of shelling cities,
32:07
including civilian areas causing the death of 1611
civilians, according to the UN. Mariupol, Kharkiv,
32:16
Sumy, and other cities have been heavily damaged.
Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country.
32:22
Both sides have suffered heavy losses, but
Ukrainians have inflicted way more damage on
32:27
Russians than was expected. By April 7 Oryx
military analysis blog visually confirmed
32:34
Russian losses at 448 destroyed or abandoned
tanks; 750 armoured vehicles, 20 fighter jets,
32:42
32 helicopters, and three navy ships,
against Ukrainian losses of 95 tanks,
32:48
under 200 armoured vehicles, 18 aircraft and
helicopters, and 15 ships. According to the NATO
32:55
estimates of 29 March, 7k-15k Russian soldiers
have been killed in Ukraine. The US sources
33:04
reported on 9 March that 2k-4k Ukrainian
soldiers were killed during the invasion.
33:11
Soon we will summarize the second month of
this conflict, which proved to be not the
33:16
Short Victorious War Vladimir Putin hoped for, but
a war of attrition that could change the fate of
33:22
the entire region, so make sure you are subscribed
and have pressed the bell button to see it.
33:28
Please, consider liking, commenting, and sharing -
it helps immensely. Our videos would be impossible
33:34
without our kind patrons and youtube channel
members, whose ranks you can join via the links
33:39
in the description to know our schedule, get
early access to our videos, access our discord,
33:45
and much more. This is the Kings and Generals
channel, and we will catch you on the next one.
— end of transcript —
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