[00:11] We like to be precise with our 
content and not cash in on the
[00:15] ongoing conflicts, so instead of spamming 
your timelines with hot takes constantly,
[00:19] we decided to take our time and summarize 
the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine
[00:24] with monthly videos. This conflict will 
enter history as pivotal both historically,
[00:30] and in terms of military science, so we will 
have more to say over the next while. For now,
[00:35] allow us to present to you our video on the 
first phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
[00:42] And with a look at the war’s beginning, we can 
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[02:01] In October 2021, the Russian army started 
a build-up on the Russia-Ukraine and
[02:06] Belarus-Ukraine borders. The Kremlin explained it 
with planned military exercises, brushing aside
[02:13] all the concerns and declaring that they had a 
right to move their forces wherever they deemed
[02:18] necessary within their borders. But soon, the 
United States started asserting that the massing
[02:24] of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border was a 
build-up for an impending invasion of Ukraine.
[02:30] The Russian government vehemently denied this, 
while some NATO states and Ukraine considered
[02:35] the US reports exaggerated. Nevertheless, by 
December, Russia started making demands: for
[02:42] NATO to guarantee that Ukraine would never join 
the organization; that Alliance would withdraw
[02:48] its forces from countries that joined the alliance 
after 1997; that NATO would stop its expansion;
[02:56] that NATO would seek agreement with Russia for any 
activities in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Caucasus,
[03:02] and Central Asia. Naturally, the United States and 
its allies rejected these proposals. Despite the
[03:09] Russian assurances and attempts of Western leaders 
like French President Emmanuel Macron to find
[03:14] common ground, the tensions continued growing. 
On 17 February, forces of the unrecognized
[03:21] Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and 
Ukraine accused each other of shelling.
[03:27] Unrecognized governments of Donetsk and Luhansk 
ordered the evacuation of their populations.
[03:32] On 21 February 2022, the Russian president 
Vladimir Putin made a threatening speech,
[03:39] questioning Ukrainian statehood and 
calling it a Bolshevik-created entity.
[03:44] On the same day, Russia became the first country 
to recognize the so-called Donetsk People’s
[03:50] Republic and Luhansk People’s republic, justifying 
this step by claiming that a genocide had been
[03:56] committed by the Ukrainian government and neo-nazi 
groups against Russian-speaking people in Donbas.
[04:04] In the early morning of 24 February, Putin 
announced the start of the special military
[04:09] operation to denazify and demilitarize 
Ukraine. A military conflict in Ukraine,
[04:16] which started in 2014, turned into a 
full-scale war with the invasion of Russia.
[04:22] According to different estimates, Russia deployed 
150k to 200k troops out of total active personnel
[04:30] of approximately 900k, along with up to 40 
thousand separatists from Donetsk and Luhansk,
[04:37] later joined by a few thousand troops from Syria 
and separatist republics of Abkhazia and Ossetia.
[04:44] It is safe to assume that most of the best Russian 
troops were deployed to Ukraine. At the same time,
[04:50] the rest of the active personnel are mostly 
conscripts stationed throughout vast Russia.
[04:56] The Russian army divides into Battalion Tactical 
Groups (BTG), which are autonomous military units
[05:03] consisting of infantry, armored and unarmored 
military vehicles, artillery, field hospitals,
[05:08] and so on. According to the latest pre-invasion 
figures provided by the official US sources,
[05:15] Russia amassed approximately 120 BTGs on the 
border with Ukraine. BTGs usually have 600-1000
[05:24] infantrymen, are supposed to have 10 tanks, 
and between 40 and 70 other armored vehicles.
[05:30] This allows us to estimate that 1200 tanks 
and 4800 to 8400 other armored vehicles
[05:38] are being used in the Russian expeditionary force 
if all BTGs are equipped by the book, which is
[05:44] rarely the case, especially in an army known for 
vast corruption and poor administration. According
[05:51] to the IISS Military Balance, Russia possesses 
1391 military aircraft and 544 attack helicopters,
[06:01] but it is impossible to know how many of them 
Russia is exactly using in the war in Ukraine.
[06:07] The same source shows that Ukraine has 
active personnel of approximately 200k
[06:12] troops, more than 3k armored vehicles, 
132 military aircraft, and 55 helicopters.
[06:21] Since Ukraine has declared general mobilization 
and armed volunteer Territorial Defense,
[06:27] we could assume the actual number of people 
resisting the invasion is way higher.
[06:32] Moreover, thousands of volunteers joined Ukraine’s 
international brigade. While talking about the
[06:38] comparison of forces, it is necessary to note that 
the Ukrainian army has come a long way since 2014.
[06:45] The army has been significantly modernized. 
Its military arsenal is much better, as the
[06:51] United States, United Kingdom, Turkey, and others 
have provided Ukraine with anti-tank weapons like
[06:57] NLAW and Javelin, anti-aircraft missile systems 
such as Stinger, along with TB2 Bayraktar drones.
[07:05] The Russian offensive started with a massive 
shelling and airstrike campaign throughout Ukraine
[07:11] with more than 100 missile strikes to destroy 
the Ukrainian military infrastructure, bases,
[07:16] anti-aircraft missile systems, arms depots. 
The later events demonstrated that Russia
[07:22] failed to achieve its goal, as the Ukrainian 
military infrastructure, albeit heavily damaged,
[07:28] managed to mostly stay intact. This was followed 
by a ground offensive in four general directions.
[07:35] The Northern Offensive by the Russian troops 
deployed in Belarus towards the capital Kyiv.
[07:40] The Eastern Offensive from Belgorod towards 
Kharkiv. The Donbas (Southeastern) Offensive
[07:46] from the territories controlled by 
pro-Russian separatists and Voronezh
[07:50] towards the Ukrainian-controlled territories of 
the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Southern
[07:56] Offensive from Crimea towards Kherson, Mykolaiv, 
and ultimately Odesa. It looks like the Russian
[08:02] strategy was to rapidly advance towards major 
urban centers, taking large cities like Kyiv,
[08:08] Kharkiv, Odesa as soon as possible to break 
the morale and resolve of the Ukrainians
[08:14] and force the government to capitulate, along 
with ensuring the land connection between the
[08:18] separatist-ruled part of Donbas and Crimea, and 
securing the whole Black Sea shore of Ukraine.
[08:25] These 4 offensive axes were supposed to merge 
after securing advances along the frontline
[08:31] to make pincer and envelopment movement more 
possible. The exact political endgame of the
[08:37] Russian offensive still puzzles analysts with 
claims ranging from installing a pro-Russian
[08:43] puppet government to dividing Eastern 
Ukraine into several pro-Russian states.
[08:48] The Ukrainian defense strategy was 
to orderly withdraw to urban centers
[08:53] while fighting advancing Russian forces, 
bogging them down in urban warfare,
[08:58] ambushing and attacking their supply lines. 
It would be illogical for the Ukrainian army
[09:03] to defend all the terrain along the whole of 
the massive front, given the Russian advantage
[09:08] in firepower. The analyst Michael Kofman 
calls this tactic trading space for time.
[09:15] On the first day of the invasion, Russia made the 
most significant advance on the Southern Front,
[09:20] where the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) advanced 
for about 60 kilometers pushing the Ukrainian 57th
[09:28] Motorized Brigade back and taking the North 
Crimean Canal and reaching the outskirts of
[09:33] Kherson. On the Northern Front, the 35th CAA 
took Chernobyl and the Chernobyl power plant,
[09:40] while the 36th CAAs pushed towards the capital 
Kyiv bypassing Chernihiv. The Ukrainian 1st Tank
[09:47] Brigade managed to halt the Russian advance, 
as it failed to capture the city of Chernihiv.
[09:54] The 41st CAA’s advance towards Kyiv from Sumy was 
also halted in the outskirts of Sumy by the 56th
[10:00] motorized brigade. The Russian airborne attack 
on the Hostomel Airport near Kyiv by the elite
[10:07] 31st Guards Air Assault Brigade of the Russian 
VDV (elite Airborne Army) also failed after the
[10:13] Ukrainian counter-attack. The rapid capture of 
Kharkiv did not happen either as the 1st Guards
[10:20] Tank Army could not break the resistance 
of the Ukrainian 92th Mechanized Brigade.
[10:26] The advance of the Luhansk Militia and the 
Russian 20th CAA towards Severodonetsk met
[10:31] the resistance of the Ukrainian 53rd Brigade with 
heavy fighting around the town of Schastya. The
[10:37] elements of the 8th CAA and the Donetsk Militia 
pushed the 54th Mechanized Brigade towards the
[10:43] Northwest from the Ukrainian-“DNR” line of contact 
and the 56 Motorized Brigade towards the East
[10:50] along the Black Sea shore with heavy fighting 
around Mariupol, but failed to reach its
[10:55] overall goals of taking over the rest of Donetsk 
oblast and breaking the Ukrainian resistance.
[11:02] On 25 February heavy fighting on all fronts 
continued. The Russian troops forced their
[11:08] way into Obolon mere 9 kilometers away 
from the Ukrainian Parliament building.
[11:13] The 95th Air Assault Brigade and the 72nd 
Mechanized Brigade were there to protect Kyiv.
[11:20] At this point, the United States even offered 
Ukrainian President, Zelenskyy to leave the
[11:25] capital, to which he reportedly replied: “The 
fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride”.
[11:32] The threat to the capital was real, as during his 
speech to the nation he called the Ukrainians to
[11:38] brace for an offensive and urged them 
to prepare for a hard battle for Kyiv.
[11:43] Zelenskyy’s refusal to leave and insistence to 
fight against the odds turned him into a hero
[11:49] and the symbol of the Ukrainian resistance, 
further mobilizing Ukrainian society and
[11:54] galvanizing the international community 
to adopt crippling sanctions on Russia,
[11:59] such as disconnecting several major Russian 
banks from SWIFT. But the situation continued
[12:05] to be difficult for the Ukrainians. The American 
intelligence predicted that the fall of Kyiv
[12:10] would happen within 96 hours. Even though the 
Russians failed to capture Sumy, they continued
[12:16] their march towards Kyiv from there, advancing to 
Romny. On the Southern Front, Russians developed
[12:22] their success by capturing Novo Kakhovka and 
moving closer to securing Kherson and Melitopol.
[12:28] Taking Melitopol was essential to continue 
the march along the Black Sea shore to merge
[12:33] with Russian and separatist units trying to 
take Mariupol, along with advancing towards
[12:38] Zhaporizhie, which could have encircled the 
Ukrainian units fighting on the Donbas front.
[12:43] In Kharkiv and Donbas, the situation remained 
more or less stable, and there were even reports
[12:49] of the Ukrainian counter-offensives pushing 
back the Russian units to the border in Milove.
[12:54] February 25 was also the day when the defenders 
of the Zmiinyi Island, south of Odesa,
[12:59] famously responded to the Russian demand of 
surrender: “Fuck off, Russian military ship!”.
[13:06] On February 26, the Russian army mostly used 
special forces and airborne troops to fight
[13:11] the Ukrainian defense in Kyiv. With the 36th 
CAA giving up on the rapid capture of Chernihiv
[13:18] and bypassing it to move towards the capital, 
it looked that other Russian units around Kyiv
[13:23] waited for its arrival to strike Kyiv with massive 
force. Similarly unable to take the city of
[13:30] Kharkiv with a direct assault, the 1st Guards Tank 
Army divided into two groups to bypass the city
[13:36] to possibly envelop the Ukrainian 
units in the city or move towards Kyiv.
[13:42] The situation in the Southeastern Donbas 
front remained relatively stable as well.
[13:47] The Russian troops and separatist militia captured 
the port of Berdiansk and the Berdiansk Airport.
[13:53] DPR separatists also claimed to capture Pavlopol 
and Pischevik, while LNR separatists also claimed
[14:00] to seize Lopeskyne and Markivka. Russia 
continued its advance on the Southern front.
[14:06] The 42nd Guards Motor Rifle Division 
of the 58th CAA of the Russian army
[14:11] continued fighting in Kherson, while also 
sending units toward the city of Mykolaiv.
[14:17] Other elements of the 58th CAA were 
engaged in fighting to seize Melitopol,
[14:22] along with advancing towards Enerhodar and 
the Zaporizhian power plant in the north.
[14:27] Oleksiy Arestovych, the advisor to the Ukrainian 
president, admitted on February 27 that Ukraine
[14:33] lost control over the whole of Berdiansk. 
Prevailing in Kherson and Melitopol, capturing
[14:40] Henichesk and Kherson Airport meant that the 
Russian offensive on the Southern front developed
[14:44] its success, increasing the threat on Mykolaiv 
and Odesa in the West and Mariupol in the East.
[14:51] First reports of the Russian army merging its 
offensives in the Southern and Southeastern
[14:55] Front around Mariupol also emerged on that day. 
But the continuing assault on Zaporizhzhya,
[15:02] namely on Enerhodar, Vasylivka and Tokmak meant 
that the 58th CAA, the most successful unit of the
[15:08] Russian war effort so far, had to fight in three 
different directions, dividing its resources.
[15:15] On other fronts the situation remained more or 
less stable as Russia made small gains such as
[15:21] the capture of Kupyansk, the encirclement of 
Konotop, but the 41st CAA’s attack on Pryluky
[15:27] and the 1st Guards Tank Army’s attacks on Kharkiv 
and Okhtyrka were repelled. By now, it had become
[15:34] clear that the strategy of causing collapse of the 
Ukrainian defense by rapid mass offensive on major
[15:40] Ukrainian cities had failed, as the Ukrainian 
army not only remained functional in the cities,
[15:46] but also managed to harass Russian supply lines 
and inflict major losses on the Russian manpower
[15:51] and military vehicles. In response to the 
Western sanctions and failure to rapidly
[15:57] defeat the Ukrainian resistance, Putin ordered 
Russia's nuclear forces on high alert. The valiant
[16:03] defense of Ukraine caught the West by surprise, 
as contrary to almost unanimous expectation of the
[16:09] fall of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army remained 
a force capable of defending the country.
[16:15] As a result, for the first time in history, 
the EU announced direct military aid to a
[16:20] foreign country - Ukraine, while Germany made 
a major turn in its foreign policy by sending
[16:26] weapons to Ukraine and stating its intention 
to dramatically increase its military spending.
[16:32] But Russia still possessed major resources 
sufficient to defeat Ukraine. On February 28
[16:39] satellite images of a 64-kilometers long massive 
column of tanks, military vehicles, and artillery
[16:45] moving from Belarus towards the western part of 
Kyiv were shared on social media. Along with that,
[16:52] in the Kyiv front, elements of the 41st and 36th 
CAAs moved to bypass Sumy and Chernihiv to merge
[16:59] with an aim to make a push toward East Kyiv. 
Presumably, the overall goal was to attack Kyiv
[17:05] from a number of directions, but the maintenance 
of a formidable force by Ukraine in Chernihiv and
[17:11] Sumy oblasts caused a major threat to the 
extended supply lines of the Russian army.
[17:17] Elements of the Ukrainian 1st Tank Army conducted 
defensive actions against the 41st and 36th CAAs
[17:24] stalling the Russian advance in Nizhyn. Along 
with maintaining a solid defense around Kyiv,
[17:30] the Ukrainian forces also engaged in 
pointed counter-attacks, such as in Makaryv
[17:35] and Borodyanka. In Donbas heavy battles around 
Volnovakha, Starobilsk and Mariupol continued.
[17:42] In Kharkiv, Ukraine set a defensive line between 
Chuhuiv and Balakliia, preventing Russians from
[17:49] encircling Kharkiv and moving towards Poltava 
and Dnipro. Numerous reports of heavy shelling
[17:55] of civilian areas in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol 
and other cities of Ukraine continued. Also, the
[18:02] first death of a Russian general in the war was 
reported, as the deputy commander of the 41st CAA
[18:08] Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky was allegedly 
killed. On a diplomatic front, as expected the
[18:15] first round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations 
in Belarus did not bring any positive results.
[18:22] The first day of March brought several 
setbacks to the Ukrainian defense.
[18:27] Reports of capture of Kherson and Melitopol 
meant that now the 42nd Motor Rifle Division
[18:33] was free to move towards Mykolaiv, while other 
units of the 58th CAA engaged in Melitopol
[18:40] could join the attack on Mariupol from the West, 
making the encirclement of the city a real threat.
[18:46] Reports of the Belarusian army joining 
the Russian offensive were not confirmed.
[18:51] On March 2, the Western intelligence sources 
reported that Russia was switching its military
[18:56] tactic from head-on offensive on cities to 
attritional war, wearing down the Ukrainian
[19:02] army by continued assault on its defensive 
lines and shelling of Ukrainian cities to break
[19:08] the morale of the population as the overall 
pace of their offensive remained well below
[19:13] expected. Ukrainians report reclaiming of Horlivka 
by the forces of the 96th Air Assault Brigade and
[19:21] Makariv by defenders of the Kyiv perimeter. During 
the next few days both sides claimed taking Irpin,
[19:28] Bucha and Hostomel, towns in the vicinity of Kyiv, 
capture of which was crucial for the success of
[19:34] the Russian campaign in Kyiv. It indicates that 
heavy fighting was going on around this area,
[19:40] but these reports also stipulated that the 
Russian attacks were mostly carried out by
[19:45] 1 or 2 BTGs at the same time, which 
was interpreted by military experts
[19:51] as inability of the Russian army to carry out 
coordinated attacks by a large number of units.
[19:57] Another point of the Russian offensive in the 
Kyiv front was Brovary, but the attempts to
[20:02] push back the Ukrainian army by the 41st and 36th 
CAAs were repelled. Within the next several days,
[20:10] these unsuccessful attacks would continue. 
On other fronts Russia took Balakliia,
[20:16] repelled the Ukrainian counter-attack on 
Horlivka and engaged in heavy battle to
[20:21] take the Mykolaiv airport on March 3. But possibly 
the biggest gain of the Russian army on this day
[20:28] was the capture of Svatova, which is situated 
between Kharkiv and Luhansk, by the 6th CAA
[20:34] and by the Luhansk militia. This allowed the 
Russian Eastern and Southeastern axis to link.
[20:41] The only positive result of the second round 
of negotiations was the agreement to open
[20:46] corridors for civilians stuck in encircled 
cities like Sumy, Chernihiv and Mariupol.
[20:53] On 4-6 March Russia made important 
gains on several fronts. In the South,
[20:59] the 58th CAA took Enerhodar and the power plant 
in the vicinity, along with Tokmak and Vasylivka.
[21:06] There were also reports of successful 
Russian advance on the Mykolaiv airport
[21:10] and heavy fighting in the Mykolaiv oblast, which 
was defended by the 57th motorized brigade.
[21:16] Along with that, the 6th CAA and Luhansk 
separatist forces started attacking Izium
[21:22] and Severodonetsk. The fall of these cities could 
have been disastrous for Ukraine, as it could have
[21:28] possibly allowed the Russian units to encircle 
the 56th Motorized Brigade and other Ukrainian
[21:33] units fighting in Donbas. Heavy fighting was 
reported along the Chuhuiv-Balakliia line, which
[21:40] the Ukrainian defense managed to withstand. They 
were not as successful at the Nizhyn-Pryluky line,
[21:46] as Russians were able to penetrate it pushing 
within 20kms of central Kyiv from the Northeast.
[21:53] The Russians also managed to encircle Okhtyrka.
On March 7, Ukraine managed to reclaim the
[21:59] Mykolaiv airport and Chuhuiv. The massive tank 
column in the west of Kyiv still threatened
[22:05] the city, but no significant fighting or 
movement in that direction was reported.
[22:11] This was also the day when the first international 
volunteers joined the defense of Kyiv. In the
[22:17] South, Russia repeated its tactic of bypassing 
the cities, which it failed to take with a head-on
[22:22] assault, as the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault 
Division bypassed Mykolaiv towards Voznesensk.
[22:29] The aim was to force the Southern Bug river 
and advance on strategically crucial Odesa.
[22:35] On March 8 Russia took steps to 
solidify its encirclement of Mariupol,
[22:40] by capturing the highway between the city and 
Volnovakha, while also moving elements of the
[22:46] 41st CAA to the Sumy oblast to strengthen its 
extended and constantly attacked supply lines.
[22:53] On March 9-12, the Ukrainian 1st Tank division 
managed to repel the Russian offensive by the 90th
[22:59] tank division and 55th motorized rifle brigade on 
Chernihiv, along with establishing a connection
[23:05] with the pocket of resistance in Nizhyn. Heavy 
battles continued in Izium and Severodonetsk.
[23:12] Russian offensives on Brovary by the 6th 
Guards Tank Regiment, on Hadyach by the 4th
[23:17] Guards Tank Division, and on Krivyi Rih by 7th 
Guards Mountain Air Assault Division were also
[23:22] successfully repelled. But the Ukrainian situation 
around Mariupol continued to deteriorate,
[23:30] as the Russian forces and Donetsk separatists 
moved into portions of eastern part of the city,
[23:35] along with taking Volnovakha. The 
infamous tank column in Northwest of Kyiv
[23:40] by now had dispersed and redeployed elsewhere.
The most important event of 13-16 March was the
[23:48] ballistic strike at the Yavoriv training center 
near Lviv, as the Russian Defense Ministry claimed
[23:54] that 180 “mercenaries” were killed in this strike 
on the base, where training of foreign volunteers
[24:01] was conducted. By these dates it had become quite 
clear that Russia had stalled in all directions
[24:07] and was unable to conduct any major 
offensive operations anywhere, but Donbas.
[24:13] While the Russians made some gains in Izium and 
pushed around Rubizhne, the Ukrainian offensive
[24:18] towards Kherson pushed the 20th Guards Motor Rifle 
Division and reached the town of Posad-Pokrovske.
[24:25] The Ukrainians also broke 
the encirclement of Okhtyrka.
[24:29] On 19-20 March reports of Russian troops digging 
trenches and deploying minefields around Kyiv
[24:36] indicate that Russians had given up on offensive 
operations to take the capital and prepared for
[24:42] a defensive war. On March 21-24 Ukraine gained 
ground around Kyiv by counter-attacking towards
[24:50] Bucha, Vorzel, Moshchun, Makaryv, and Irpin, 
while Russia made progress in Izium and Mariupol.
[24:56] On 25-29 March, Ukraine capitalized on low 
morale and poor supply of the Russian army
[25:04] and made considerable progress on several fronts. 
The Ukrainian army solidified its successes on the
[25:10] Kyiv front by pushing back the 37th Separate 
Motor Rifle Brigade and the 31st Guards Air
[25:17] Assault Brigade from Irpin and the 90th Tank 
Division further away from Brovary and reclaimed
[25:23] Lukyanivka. In the Sumy-Kharkiv axis, the 93rd 
Brigade took back Trostyanets, Boromlia, and Mala
[25:30] Rohan, and end the encirclement of the city of 
Sumy, forcing the 27th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade
[25:37] to withdraw to Russia for presumed redeployment 
in Donbas, where Russia still had a capability
[25:42] to launch successful offensive operations and 
made some gains around Izium, Severodonetsk,
[25:48] along with capturing more of Mariupol putting 
the Ukrainian defense of the city in an even more
[25:53] desperate situation. On the Southern front, the 
Russian offensive had completely stalled as well.
[26:02] On 30 March, reports of withdrawal of several 
Russian units from the Kyiv axis started to
[26:08] emerge, whether due to heavy losses or as a part 
of a campaign to deescalate military operations
[26:14] around Kyiv. Along with that, redeployment of 
Russian units, such as the elements of the 20th
[26:20] CAA and the 1st Guards Tank Army to Belgorod 
for replenishment to presumably later send
[26:26] them to the Donbas front continued.
During the next couple of days,
[26:31] we witnessed several instances of fighting on the 
Northern Front with Ukrainian success and then a
[26:36] complete withdrawal of Russian units from Kyiv and 
Chernihiv oblasts. The 35th, 36th, and 41st CAA
[26:45] made an orderly withdrawal towards Belarus, while 
reports of redeployment of the 90th tank division
[26:51] and 2nd guards motor rifle division to the Donbas 
front emerged. On April 2, the Ukrainian Defense
[26:57] Ministry stated that Ukraine was now controlling 
all of the Kyiv Oblast. On April 4, the governor
[27:05] of Zhytomyr Oblast also stated that the region 
was now completely under Ukrainian control.
[27:11] By April 5, there were no Russian troops left in 
the Chernihiv Oblast either. Ukraine prevailed in
[27:17] the Northern Front and the Battle of Kyiv against 
all odds. But Russian loss came at a very high
[27:24] price for the Ukrainian military, infrastructure, 
and particularly, the civilian population. As the
[27:30] Ukrainian army reclaimed Bucha, it witnessed 
horrific scenes of hundreds of civilians lying
[27:35] dead on its streets. Satellite images taken on 
the days, when the Russian army still controlled
[27:41] this town, prove beyond reasonable doubt that 
this massacre was indeed committed by Russia.
[27:47] Ukraine also staged counterattacks in 
Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. On 31 March,
[27:54] they liberated Malynivka, Vesele, Zelenyi Hai 
and other towns in the Zaporizhia oblast, along
[28:00] with several towns and settlements in the Kherson 
oblast, including Novovoronstovka on 1-2 April.
[28:07] But around the same dates, Russia continued 
very slow, but steady progress in Donbas,
[28:13] as they claimed to capture Zolota Nyva in the 
Donetsk oblast and Zhytlivka in the Luhansk
[28:18] oblast. On April 1, Ukraine admitted 
that Russia was able to capture Izium
[28:24] after days of heavy fighting. But arguably, 
the most important event of this day
[28:29] was the Ukrainian strike on a fuel storage 
depot in the Russian city of Belgorod,
[28:34] which was the first incident of spillover of 
the war in Ukraine to the Russian territory.
[28:40] On April 4, reports of the advance of the Russian 
forces from the Kharkiv axis towards Slovyansk
[28:46] started emerging. According to various military 
experts, capture of Slovyansk created options
[28:52] to link up with the Russian units fighting in 
Rubizhne, or advancing towards Horlivka, both of
[28:57] which carried a potential risk of encirclement 
for the Ukrainian units on the Donbas front.
[29:03] By 5 April, elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army, 
including the elements of the 2nd GMRD, 4th GTD,
[29:11] 47th GTD, the 106th GAD, the 144th MRD and the 
3rd MRD were redeployed to Izium and we can expect
[29:21] most of the Russian offensive operations 
to be conducted along the Donets River,
[29:25] which the Ukrainian 25th Airborne Brigade and 
the 81st Air Assault Brigade will try to defend.
[29:32] The presidential aide Orestovych noted in his 
interview that the Ukrainian army faces 8 to 1
[29:39] numerical disadvantage on this axis. On 6 April it 
was confirmed that the Russian army completed its
[29:46] withdrawal from the Sumy oblast too. These forces 
were to be redeployed in Donbas too. Lastly,
[29:54] the situation of the Ukrainian units in Mariupol 
was getting increasingly more desperate. According
[30:00] to British Intelligence, by April 7 Russia 
already controlled 76% of the city. But it is also
[30:07] reported that the Russian units participating in 
the siege of Mariupol are suffering heavy losses
[30:13] amid fierce resistance by the Azov battalion 
and units of the regular Ukrainian army.
[30:19] In the run-up and on the first few days of the 
war, almost everyone expected a quick Russian
[30:25] victory and the collapse of the Ukrainian 
army. It was only a question of when. But
[30:31] the Ukrainian army has defied the odds by 
standing tall and more recently prevailing
[30:36] in the Battle of Kyiv and reclaiming some 
of the lost territories in other regions.
[30:42] Despite the overwhelming advantage in firepower, 
bad planning by the Russian command manifested in
[30:48] an inability to conduct major offensive operations 
in the coordination of a large number of units
[30:54] and different branches of the military; poor 
logistical preparation was demonstrated by images
[31:00] of incapacitated military vehicles due to lack of 
fuel and insufficient food supplies proved by the
[31:06] Russian looting of civilian stores; low morale, 
the clear indicator of which is scores of Russian
[31:13] servicemen, particularly conscripts surrendering 
to Ukrainians, since they don’t really understand
[31:18] what they are fighting for and are just 
completely unprepared to the brutality of war;
[31:24] inability to ensure air domination despite the 
huge numerical advantage in military aircraft
[31:30] has made the Russian war effort 
in Ukraine to go horribly wrong.
[31:34] Around Kharkiv and South of Ukraine, the 
Russians have been pushed back as well.
[31:39] The only axis, where Russians and 
pro-Russian separatists can hope to gain any
[31:44] considerable success is the Southeastern front.
The Russian General Staff has stated in late March
[31:51] that its main focus is on the so-called 
“liberation” of Ukrainian-controlled territories
[31:56] of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, since it remains 
the only front, where Russians can realistically
[32:01] hope for success. Russia continues to 
employ the tactic of shelling cities,
[32:07] including civilian areas causing the death of 1611 
civilians, according to the UN. Mariupol, Kharkiv,
[32:16] Sumy, and other cities have been heavily damaged. 
Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country.
[32:22] Both sides have suffered heavy losses, but 
Ukrainians have inflicted way more damage on
[32:27] Russians than was expected. By April 7 Oryx 
military analysis blog visually confirmed
[32:34] Russian losses at 448 destroyed or abandoned 
tanks; 750 armoured vehicles, 20 fighter jets,
[32:42] 32 helicopters, and three navy ships, 
against Ukrainian losses of 95 tanks,
[32:48] under 200 armoured vehicles, 18 aircraft and 
helicopters, and 15 ships. According to the NATO
[32:55] estimates of 29 March, 7k-15k Russian soldiers 
have been killed in Ukraine. The US sources
[33:04] reported on 9 March that 2k-4k Ukrainian 
soldiers were killed during the invasion.
[33:11] Soon we will summarize the second month of 
this conflict, which proved to be not the
[33:16] Short Victorious War Vladimir Putin hoped for, but 
a war of attrition that could change the fate of
[33:22] the entire region, so make sure you are subscribed 
and have pressed the bell button to see it.
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